{"id":12036,"date":"2024-04-20T00:00:32","date_gmt":"2024-04-19T21:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frishberg.yakimaxim.site\/?p=12036"},"modified":"2026-03-12T09:49:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T09:49:06","slug":"when-and-how-will-the-war-end-and-what-then","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frishberg.com\/uk\/when-and-how-will-the-war-end-and-what-then\/","title":{"rendered":"When and How Will the War End, and What Then?"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the war in Ukraine reaches a pivotal moment, it\u2019s time to take stock of where we\u2019re at, what needs to be done, and where we\u2019re heading.<\/p>\n

Despite all the sanctions designed to isolate Russia\u2019s economy, billions of dollars\u2019 worth of military assistance to Ukraine, and two years of\u00a0grueling warfare, there seems to be no end in sight for this disaster.\u00a0 Today, those of us living in Ukraine continually wonder: when will the war finally end and what kind of peace will it bring?<\/p>\n

When will the war end?<\/p>\n

The answer to this question is simple: the war could end within one year if the West did two things:<\/p>\n

Fully enforce all current sanctions, such as the oil embargo, SWIFT limitations, etc.
Provide Ukraine with long-range\u00a0drones\u00a0and missiles, and to allow their use on Russian territory.
So far, most sanctions have not been enforced \u2013 for example Russia has continued to sell oil products to India and China.\u00a0 In another stark example, just last week, we learned that the German companies Knauf and WKB Systems GmbH are involved in the so-called restoration efforts in the occupied city of Mariupol in the Donetsk Oblast, which was destroyed by Russian troops, according to an April 3 investigation by journalists of the ARD Monitor Program.<\/p>\n

In terms of military assistance, the US resembles a rudderless sailboat, lacking a captain in a hurricane season – an impotent nation without a coherent foreign policy, perpetually in a state of internal conflict.\u00a0 That is why the US has held up vital military assistance to Ukraine at a critical time, allowing Russia to destroy much of Ukraine\u2019s energy infrastructure in the last month.<\/p>\n

One could argue that the increase in Russia\u2019s attacks is directly due to Mike Johnson, who appears to religiously follow the diktats of former President Trump – who is at the moment just a citizen, not a government official.<\/p>\n

Thankfully, the European nations are trying to fill the military void.\u00a0 For the first time since the US withdrew its military support, Ukraine has been effectively targeting numerous military objects deep in Russian territory on a regular basis – oil depots, airfields, drone factories, and so on.\u00a0 There is ongoing talk about blowing up the Crimean Bridge, which would dramatically change the battlefield.\u00a0 Ukraine is just beginning to get the upper hand in this war despite difficult times.<\/p>\n

If fully supported with strict enforcement of sanctions and with long-range weapons, Ukraine could win this war within one year.\u00a0 The bigger question is when will the West give Ukraine the necessary support?<\/p>\n

Conditions for ending the war.<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s terms for ending the war are simple:<\/p>\n

Return all territory as it was in 1991 prior to the Budapest Memorandum (including Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, etc.
Compensate all damage, with a current estimate of between $650 to $800 billion,
Comply with the ICC ruling that declared Putin as a war criminal \u2013 remove him from office and send to The Hague.
As a part of this deal, all Western sanctions would be lifted, and Russia would make a peaceful return to the global community.<\/p>\n

Knowing the nature of Putin, none of these conditions are acceptable to him for numerous reasons.\u00a0 This is why a long-lasting settlement negotiated in good faith is impossible with Russia, and the war will not end as long as Russia\u2019s war economy is able to function.\u00a0 Only a crushed Russian economy, totally depleted of resources, would be able to slow the war to a grinding halt, freezing the conflict indefinitely.<\/p>\n

Life in Ukraine after the war<\/p>\n

Without agreeing to Ukraine\u2019s terms, Russia will remain a pariah state facing a permanent cold war with the West, as it once was, and continuing its hot war with Ukraine.\u00a0 So how could Ukraine continue to function under such conditions?<\/p>\n

There are two obvious examples of how other peaceful and prosperous countries like Ukraine ended up living for a long time next to aggressive, vindictive neighbors, hell-bent on destruction.<\/p>\n

One involves Israel and Iran, with Gaza and Hamas in the buffer zone, and the other is North Korea and South Korea with a demilitarized zone separating the two nations.\u00a0 In both cases, unresolved grievances have continued for decades, as did the threats and attacks from the aggressive neighbor, witness the latest Hamas attack on Israel.<\/p>\n

In both cases, there were buffer zones, much like the Donetsk and Lugansk regions have become today.\u00a0 Gaza was settled by civilians and governed by Hamas, a terrorist group sponsored by Iran, while the Korean DMZ is purely militarily controlled.\u00a0 Like Hamas, Russia is currently resettling its citizens into Ukrainian cities that it has destroyed.\u00a0 Unless Ukraine takes back these cities, a similar situation to Gaza will develop on Ukraine\u2019s borders after the war, allowing Russia to continue terrorizing Ukrainian civilians with missiles and drones on an indefinite basis.<\/p>\n

So how do Ukrainians continue living their normal lives, while living next to this Russian beast?\u00a0 Normalcy is relative, and if Israel was able to implement air defense systems and alerts and continue to operate airports, allowing people to fly without risking death, Ukraine will surely borrow from this experience.<\/p>\n

With such a system in place, Ukraine will be able to safely start a massive reconstruction and continue to integrate with the EU and NATO.\u00a0 Like in the early 1990s, the Ukrainian economy will experience tremendous growth whilst Russia will stagnate in isolation until it complies with the West\u2019s and Ukraine\u2019s conditions.<\/p>\n

In conclusion, many analysists agree that Ukraine will surely win the war, while others believe that Russia will conquer the entire Ukraine (or at least take over large territories).\u00a0 Instead of these two absolute scenarios, I believe that unless some intervening event occurs – such as Prigozhyn\u2019s mutiny – a middle ground is more likely a frozen conflict for an indefinite future, which would allow Ukraine to forge its own future with the EU and\u00a0NATO.<\/p>\n

All of this is realistic and could happen within one year after the West, especially the US, starts to enforce existing sanctions and provides long-range weapons.\u00a0 Mark my words.<\/p>\n

Alex Frishberg is the managing partner at Frishberg and Partners, Kyiv-based Attorneys at Law.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
Also read on kyivpost<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the war in Ukraine reaches a pivotal moment, it\u2019s time to take stock of where we\u2019re at, what needs to be done, and where we\u2019re heading. Despite all the sanctions designed to isolate Russia\u2019s economy, billions of dollars\u2019 worth of military assistance to Ukraine, and two years of\u00a0grueling warfare, there seems to be no…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":989170,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[64],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-press"],"yoast_head":"\nWhen and How Will the War End, and What Then? - Frishberg & Partners\u200b<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/frishberg.com\/uk\/when-and-how-will-the-war-end-and-what-then\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"uk_UA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"When and How Will the War End, and What Then? - Frishberg & Partners\u200b\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As the war in Ukraine reaches a pivotal moment, it\u2019s time to take stock of where we\u2019re at, what needs to be done, and where we\u2019re heading. 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