{"id":990811,"date":"2025-08-12T09:45:44","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T09:45:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frishberg.com\/?p=990811"},"modified":"2025-08-12T09:47:18","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T09:47:18","slug":"putins-regime-is-eating-itself-alive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frishberg.com\/uk\/putins-regime-is-eating-itself-alive\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin\u2019s Regime Is Eating Itself Alive"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The Russian state is collapsing \u2013 structurally, economically, and psychologically. Not just on the front lines, but deep within the Kremlin\u2019s own walls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, once again, Ukrainian drones struck Moscow. Airports were closed. Russian air defenses fired and Russian social media lit up with panic. But the real story isn\u2019t just about a drone strike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s that the Russian state is collapsing \u2013 structurally, economically, and psychologically. Not just on the front lines, but deep within the Kremlin\u2019s own walls. Economically, militarily, and socially, Putin\u2019s regime is cracking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin wants the world to believe he\u2019s weathering the storm. But the reality is this: His regime is bleeding from every artery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now Putin falls back on his instincts, to do, as many dictators before him: He is seeking to consolidate control, relying on those he trusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The secret police are seizing power<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On July 8, the Russian Duma passed a law granting the FSB \u2013 the modern successor of the Soviet KGB\u2014the power to build and operate its own private prison system. This marks a historic and chilling shift in the architecture of Russian state power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the first time since Stalin\u2019s NKVD, Russia\u2019s secret police now bypass both the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Internal Affairs. No military agency, no civilian ministry \u2013 not even Putin\u2019s national guard \u2013 has this privilege.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The FSB now controls the arrest, the investigation, and the imprisonment of anyone it targets. This is not merely centralization \u2013 it is the consolidation of a parallel state, one that operates outside constitutional oversight, legal restraint, or public transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It signals that Putin no longer trusts his own institutions \u2013 like the police or military \u2013 and is handing raw coercive power to the only organ he truly controls: the secret police.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The Kremlin is arming the FSB with unchecked tools of terror, because the regime\u2019s foundations are too rotten to hold without force.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Authoritarian regimes consolidate power in their final stages by turning inward \u2013 by elevating fear over law, repression over governance. This move by the Duma is not about managing criminals. It\u2019s about preparing for mass purges, silencing dissent, and locking down the collapsing state through intimidation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Private FSB prisons mean whistleblowers vanish without trace. Rival factions are neutralized without trial. Even ministers are now expendable. The Kremlin is arming the FSB with unchecked tools of terror, because the regime\u2019s foundations are too rotten to hold without force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In modern Russian history, the last time an intelligence agency wielded this kind of unilateral power, the result was the Great Terror. Today, it\u2019s not ideology that drives it \u2013 it\u2019s regime survival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s economic core is imploding<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s energy empire \u2013 the financial backbone of the regime \u2013 is unraveling. In June, oil and gas revenues plunged by nearly 34%, forcing the Kremlin to more than triple its projected 2025 deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Urals crude is now trading at just $52 per barrel \u2013 far below the $70-per-barrel baseline baked into the federal budget. For a state that relies on oil and gas for almost 40% of its revenue, this is not turbulence. It\u2019s structural collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry profits have cratered. In Q1 2025, Russia\u2019s oil and gas sector saw a 50% drop in net profit. Rosneft\u2019s income fell by 7.6% year-on-year, while Lukoil reported a 26.5% decline in net profit over the last fiscal year. The sector is bleeding from every direction \u2013 hammered by sanctions, price caps, tanker blacklists, and shrinking demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even coal is buckling. Russia\u2019s state railways announced they would not renew coal export agreements with major mining regions, threatening to derail one of the last profitable sectors left.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The contagion is spreading across the domestic economy. Moscow\u2019s real estate sales crashed by 42% in May. Nationwide, developers are freezing projects. Restaurants have seen a 33% collapse in foot traffic \u2013 even as food prices spike by up to 50%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The middle class has stopped spending. Construction is stalling. Private capital has exited. This isn\u2019t stagnation \u2013 it\u2019s a consumer economy in full retreat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To cover the widening fiscal crater, the Kremlin has already burned through nearly $6 billion from the National Welfare Fund in the first five months of 2025 \u2013 more than half the amount spent in all of last year. Economists warn that if trends continue, the fund will be empty by 2026. But the crisis doesn\u2019t stop there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ruble is cornered. Analysts now warn that it must be devalued to 120\u2013130 per dollar to stabilize government finances. But doing so risks triggering a bank run \u2013 ordinary Russians pulling their savings to avoid losing everything. Meanwhile, household credit has collapsed. In just six months, over $3.7 billion in delinquent loans were handed to collectors. Not postponed \u2013 defaulted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This isn\u2019t just fiscal strain. It\u2019s systemic breakdown. And the worst may not be behind Russia \u2013 but just ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n