{"id":990837,"date":"2025-10-14T15:36:22","date_gmt":"2025-10-14T15:36:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frishberg.com\/?p=990837"},"modified":"2025-10-14T15:36:23","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T15:36:23","slug":"putin-the-geopolitical-gangster-is-trying-to-intimidate-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frishberg.com\/uk\/putin-the-geopolitical-gangster-is-trying-to-intimidate-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin the geopolitical gangster is trying to intimidate Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"vgblk-rw-wrapper limit-wrapper\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russian incursions into NATO airspace have become alarmingly commonplace in recent weeks as Vladimir Putin escalates his shadow war against the West. The first clear signal of an upturn in hostile Kremlin activity came in early September when a wave of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/09\/09\/europe\/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml\">Russian drones<\/a>&nbsp;crossed the border into Poland, sparking an armed response from NATO jets. Days later, three Russian fighters&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/czrp6p5mj3zo\">violated<\/a>&nbsp;Estonian airspace. More recently,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/exclusive-europe-believes-russia-behind-mysterious-drone-sightings-but-cant-prove-it-dutch-pm-says\/\">suspected Russian drones<\/a>&nbsp;have forced shutdowns at international airports in a number of European countries including Denmark, Norway, Germany, and the Netherlands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These incursions are far from unprecedented. Ever since Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine began more than a decade ago, the Kremlin has been engaged in a campaign of gray zone aggression throughout the democratic world involving everything from social media disinformation and cyberattacks to infrastructure sabotage and assassinations. Nevertheless, the sharp rise in high-profile incidents over the past month suggests we may now be entering a dangerous new phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What is Russia\u2019s objective? Many have speculated that the Kremlin may be seeking to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2025\/sep\/14\/russian-drone-incursion-poland-nato-ukraine-europe\">test NATO<\/a>&nbsp;and assess how well the alliance is adapting to the rapidly changing military realities of drone warfare. This is a reasonable assumption. It is certainly true that each new Russian provocation has yielded a treasure trove of useful intelligence on the current state of Europe\u2019s defenses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, it is difficult to believe that Putin is in a position to dramatically expand the current war. The Kremlin dictator has committed the vast majority of Russia\u2019s available military potential to the invasion of Ukraine, leaving him&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/ukrainealert\/iran-becomes-the-latest-russian-ally-to-discover-the-limits-of-kremlin-support\/\">too overstretched to intervene elsewhere<\/a>&nbsp;on behalf of Russian allies in Armenia, Syria, and Iran. A Russian attack on NATO therefore looks unlikely, at least for now. Instead, the recent surge in Russian hybrid warfare activities is primarily an attempt to intimidate Europe and deter further support for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Putin has long been recognized for his skill in the dark arts of international intimidation. This reputation has been significantly enhanced by the success of his scare tactics during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, while Putin\u2019s armies have struggled to live up to expectations on the battlefield, his ability to intimidate his Western adversaries has been arguably the Russian leader\u2019s single greatest achievement of the entire war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since the initial hours of the invasion, Putin has used a combination of thinly-veiled threats and nuclear saber-rattling to browbeat the West and isolate Ukraine. Like a geopolitical gangster, he has repeatedly intimidated Europeans with the prospect of shattering their peaceful existence if they dare to interfere in his criminal affairs. While he has typically steered clear of direct ultimatums, the underlying message behind Putin\u2019s many menacing statements has been unmistakable: \u201cNice countries you have there. It would be a shame if something happened to them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This strategy has proved remarkably effective. While Western governments have condemned Russia\u2019s \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/world\/putin-nuclear-doctrine-changes-russia-ukraine-war-west-rcna180772\">irresponsible<\/a>\u201d use of nuclear rhetoric and have publicly insisted that they will not be bullied by the Kremlin, there can be no serious debate that Putin\u2019s threats have had the desired effect. His intimidation tactics have been fundamental in shaping the overly cautious international response to Russia\u2019s invasion, which has been consistently characterized by an excessive emphasis on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/ukrainealert\/escalation-management-is-the-appeasement-of-the-21st-century\/\">avoiding escalation<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Kremlin dictator is now looking to employ the same approach as he seeks to exploit Europe\u2019s growing sense of insecurity. Putin is well aware that European leaders have been unnerved by US President Donald Trump\u2019s mixed messaging on NATO and his plans to reduce America\u2019s involvement in the defense of Europe. For Moscow, this presents an inviting opportunity. By engaging in increasingly open acts of aggression across Europe, Putin is sending a signal to European capitals that they are all alone against a resurgent Russia and can no longer count on the reassuring presence of the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earlier this week, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev provided the most explicit indication yet that the recent spike in Russian gray zone operations is aimed at intimidating Europeans. While refusing to accept responsibility for the sharp rise in disruptive drone activity, Medvedev noted with satisfaction that the \u201cdrone epidemic\u201d was causing widespread panic and could persuade Europeans to turn away from Ukraine. \u201cThe main thing is for narrow-minded Europeans to experience the dangers of war for themselves. To tremble like dumb animals in a herd being driven to the slaughter. To soil themselves with fear, anticipating their imminent and painful end,\u201d he&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/medvedev_telegram\/608\">commented<\/a>&nbsp;in typically understated fashion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Putin is clearly hoping his drone diplomacy will spread a sense of alarm across Europe and encourage the continent\u2019s leaders to abandon Ukraine. Desired initial outcomes include a reduction in European military aid for Kyiv and the redirection of existing resources away from Ukraine in order to bolster defenses closer to home. By exposing Europe\u2019s vulnerability to Russian attack, Moscow may also be able to undermine the prospects of a unified European defense policy and strengthen support for Kremlin-friendly political parties advocating appeasement toward Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This strategy is not without risk, of course. Some in Europe, particularly those with firsthand experience of Russian imperialism, are pushing hard for comprehensive countermeasures to Putin\u2019s recent provocations that will underline the continent\u2019s commitment to defending itself. Many remain unconvinced that Europe will rise to the challenge, however. The Kremlin certainly appears confident that the current rhetoric in European capitals will ultimately result in little concrete action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This apparent lack of concern in Moscow should come as no surprise. After all, Putin has been betting on Western weakness for over two decades. Ever since he first embarked on an expansionist foreign policy with the 2008 invasion of Georgia, Putin has been counting on the democratic world\u2019s deep reluctance to risk a direct military confrontation with the Kremlin. So far, his low opinion of the West has proved more than justified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Putin\u2019s invasion has not gone according to plan but he still firmly believes he can win the war by outlasting the West and overwhelming Ukraine. He has recently been encouraged by Trump\u2019s efforts to downgrade US involvement, and now views Europe as the last remaining obstacle to Russian victory. It is therefore safe to assume that the Kremlin\u2019s campaign of gray zone aggression will continue to gain momentum as Putin seeks to cow Europe and isolate Kyiv. The Russian leader thinks his enemies are weak and can be easily intimidated. Until he is proved wrong, the cost of stopping him will only rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/ukrainealert\/putin-the-geopolitical-gangster-is-trying-to-intimidate-europe\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">www.atlanticcouncil.org<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/div><!-- .vgblk-rw-wrapper -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Russian incursions into NATO airspace have become alarmingly commonplace in recent weeks as Vladimir Putin escalates his shadow war against the West. The first clear signal of an upturn in hostile Kremlin activity came in early September when a wave of&nbsp;Russian drones&nbsp;crossed the border into Poland, sparking an armed response from NATO jets. Days later,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":989699,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[67],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-990837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-peter-dickinson"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Putin the geopolitical gangster is trying to intimidate Europe - Frishberg &amp; Partners\u200b<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/frishberg.com\/uk\/putin-the-geopolitical-gangster-is-trying-to-intimidate-europe\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"uk_UA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Putin the geopolitical gangster is trying to intimidate Europe - Frishberg &amp; Partners\u200b\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Russian incursions into NATO airspace have become alarmingly commonplace in recent weeks as Vladimir Putin escalates his shadow war against the West. 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The first clear signal of an upturn in hostile Kremlin activity came in early September when a wave of&nbsp;Russian drones&nbsp;crossed the border into Poland, sparking an armed response from NATO jets. 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