{"id":990839,"date":"2025-10-17T07:14:16","date_gmt":"2025-10-17T07:14:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frishberg.com\/?p=990839"},"modified":"2025-10-17T07:14:17","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T07:14:17","slug":"tomahawk-missiles-are-russias-latest-red-line-will-trump-call-putins-bluff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frishberg.com\/uk\/tomahawk-missiles-are-russias-latest-red-line-will-trump-call-putins-bluff\/","title":{"rendered":"Tomahawk missiles are Russia\u2019s latest red line. Will Trump call Putin\u2019s bluff?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As the United States moves closer to a decision on supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, the Kremlin is cranking up the rhetoric in a bid to deter US President Donald Trump. Commenting on Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged that the issue of Tomahawks was causing \u201cextreme concern<\/a>\u201d in Moscow and said the war was now entering a \u201cdramatic moment\u201d with tensions escalating on all sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Others were even more outspoken. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev led the way with a thinly-veiled nuclear threat<\/a> directed personally at Trump. \u201cIt\u2019s been said a hundred times, in a manner understandable even to the star-spangled man, that it\u2019s impossible to distinguish a nuclear Tomahawk missile from a conventional one in flight,\u201d Medvedev noted. \u201cThe delivery of these missiles could end badly for everyone. And most of all, for Trump himself.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Medvedev\u2019s nuclear saber-rattling has been echoed by Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka. Long seen as Putin\u2019s closest international ally and a junior partner in the Kremlin\u2019s Ukraine invasion, Lukashenka warned<\/a> this week that any decision to provide Kyiv with the US-made long-range missiles could have disastrous ramifications for international security. \u201cTomahawks will not solve the problem. They will escalate the situation to a nuclear war,\u201d he told colleagues in Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is easy to understand why Moscow so adamantly opposes the idea of sending Tomahawks to Ukraine. With a potential range of up to 2500 kilometers, these powerful missiles would make it possible for the Ukrainian army to radical expand their current campaign of long-range strikes against military and industrial targets deep inside Russia. Kyiv has already been able to significantly damage<\/a> Putin\u2019s war machine using domestically produced drones and missiles. There is now clearly a growing sense of alarm in Moscow that the additional firepower provided by American Tomahawks could tip the balance further in Ukraine\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The real question is whether Russia\u2019s latest threats deserve to be taken seriously. After all, Kremlin officials have frequently used similarly apocalyptic language throughout the past three and a half years of full-scale war, but have consistently failed to back their words up with actions. Time and again, Moscow has declared a new red line while warning the West of potential Russian reprisals, only to then do nothing when these red lines are subsequently crossed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s attempts to impose red lines on Ukraine\u2019s Western allies are a key part of the intimidation tactics employed by Putin since the start of the war. During his address<\/a> announcing the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin threatened the West with \u201csuch consequences that you have never faced in your history\u201d if they dared to intervene. This rather obvious reference to nuclear war set the tone for the relentless nuclear blackmail<\/a> that has followed. When it became apparent last year that Putin\u2019s nuclear bluster was losing its potency, he ostentatiously revised Russia\u2019s nuclear doctrine<\/a> to lower the threshold for nuclear strikes and heighten the fear factor throughout the democratic world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s nuclear threats have certainly not been subtle, but they have proved surprisingly effective against risk-averse Western leaders. From the eve of the invasion onward, every single debate over the delivery of new weapons to Ukraine has been dragged out and delayed by overblown fears of possible escalation and craven talk of the need to avoid provoking Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The timidity of the West has only served to embolden the Kremlin dictator and prolong the war, enabling Russia to punch well above its geopolitical weight against far wealthier and better armed opponents. Indeed, while his armies have struggled to advance on the battlefields of Ukraine, Putin\u2019s ability to intimidate the West has been arguably his single biggest success of the entire invasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This success is all the more remarkable given how many times Putin\u2019s threats have been exposed as empty. Russia\u2019s unilaterally declared red lines over the supply of everything from Javelin anti-tank weapons and Patriot air defense systems to F-16 fighter jets and Leopard tanks have all eventually been violated without consequence. Likewise, the Ukrainian army has repeatedly demonstrated its complete disregard for Putin\u2019s red lines by liberating large swathes of the country from Russian occupation, chasing the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea, and invading Russia itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of this has sparked World War III. On the contrary, Putin has responded to each fresh military setback by attempting to downplay the significance of his latest humiliation. Russian retreats have been rebranded in Orwellian fashion as \u201cgoodwill gestures<\/a>,\u201d while earlier protests over the planned delivery of new weapons systems have been replaced by expressions of defiant indifference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based on the wartime experience of the past three and a half years, there is no reason whatsoever to believe that Russia\u2019s red lines are credible. Instead, the only logical conclusion is that Putin has been bluffing all along. Trump must now decide whether he will call Putin\u2019s bluff and arm Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are mounting indications that he may be inclined to do so. Since the end of summer, the US leader\u2019s rhetoric toward Russia and Ukraine has changed markedly, with Trump mocking the Russian army as a \u201cpaper tiger<\/a>\u201d and stating that Ukraine is now in a position to win the war. Meanwhile, reports<\/a> have emerged in recent days that the US is already providing vital intelligence support for Ukraine\u2019s long-range strikes against Russia\u2019s oil and gas industries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s apparent change of heart can be partially explained by his loss of patience with Putin, who has rejected<\/a> the US leader\u2019s generous peace terms and has proven himself to be completely untrustworthy during the past eight months of faltering negotiations. The new US stance is also due to Trump\u2019s evolving understanding of the war in Ukraine. Knowledge of Russia\u2019s failed summer offensive<\/a> and the country\u2019s escalating economic woes appear to have helped persuade Trump that the time has come to rethink his earlier assumptions regarding the inevitability of Russian victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is some speculation, based in part on Trump\u2019s own comments<\/a>, that the current US strategy is to raise the prospect of arming Ukraine with Tomahawks without actually supplying them in order to bring Putin to the negotiating table. Even if the missiles are delivered, they are not wonder weapons and will not win the war for Ukraine overnight. Nevertheless, the current debate over Tomahawks represents a potentially important turning point in the biggest European war since World War II.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the onset of the invasion, Putin has managed to limit support for Ukraine by skillfully exploiting the West\u2019s collective fear of escalation. Trump now has an opportunity to convince his Russian counterpart that he is not as easily intimidated as other Western leaders and is more than ready to increase the pressure on Moscow until Putin agrees to pursue peace. Many of Trump\u2019s detractors will no doubt scoff at the idea of the US president adopting such a uncompromising stance toward Putin, but few objective observers would question that this approach is the only way to end the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source:\u00a0www.atlanticcouncil.org<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the United States moves closer to a decision on supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, the Kremlin is cranking up the rhetoric in a bid to deter US President Donald Trump. Commenting on Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged that the issue of Tomahawks was causing \u201cextreme concern\u201d in Moscow and said…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":989699,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[67],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-990839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-peter-dickinson"],"yoast_head":"\nTomahawk missiles are Russia\u2019s latest red line. 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