{"id":990913,"date":"2026-01-08T11:49:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-08T11:49:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frishberg.com\/?p=990913"},"modified":"2026-01-08T11:49:09","modified_gmt":"2026-01-08T11:49:09","slug":"frishberg-and-partners-shares-a-new-briefing-by-jason-jay-smart-government-relations-group-leader-on-how-oil-market-dynamics-are-narrowing-the-kremlins-financial-and-political-room","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frishberg.com\/uk\/frishberg-and-partners-shares-a-new-briefing-by-jason-jay-smart-government-relations-group-leader-on-how-oil-market-dynamics-are-narrowing-the-kremlins-financial-and-political-room\/","title":{"rendered":"Frishberg and Partners shares a new briefing by Jason Jay Smart, Government Relations Group Leader, on how oil market dynamics are narrowing the Kremlin\u2019s financial and political room."},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"vgblk-rw-wrapper limit-wrapper\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jason argues that the current market is sending an unmistakable signal. \u201cThe global oil market just handed the Kremlin a verdict that it cannot appeal.\u201d He points to a sustained surplus and expectations of lower prices as a direct challenge to Moscow\u2019s budget planning. \u201cSurplus is now the new law.\u201d In practical terms, this means Russia must fund a costly war with less reliable revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A central point in Jason\u2019s analysis is that the public benchmark price does not reflect what Russia can actually collect. \u201cThe price you see on the news is not the price Russia actually gets.\u201d Discounts at export points, added costs of shadow shipping, and harder insurance reduce the cash that reaches state accounts. Jason concludes that prolonged low prices create pressure that compounds over time. \u201cLow oil does not make Moscow soft. It makes the system brittle.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Key points from Jason\u2019s briefing:<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Lower prices and deeper discounts reduce state revenue and weaken Russia\u2019s leverage<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Oil producer\u2019s steady output locks in surplus while Russia has limited ability to borrow and must rely on reserves<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Revenue pressure increases domestic extraction through higher taxes and broader conscription administration<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Scarcity fuels elite competition and raises the cost of internal control<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a legal risk perspective, tighter revenue often increases sanctions evasion. Companies should expect stricter scrutiny across shipping, commodities, and third party payment chains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Watch full video:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"This IRREVERSIBLE Error Just Broke the Kremlin System\" width=\"1340\" height=\"754\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/WuTITvz4rMU?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div><!-- .vgblk-rw-wrapper -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jason argues that the current market is sending an unmistakable signal. \u201cThe global oil market just handed the Kremlin a verdict that it cannot appeal.\u201d He points to a sustained surplus and expectations of lower prices as a direct challenge to Moscow\u2019s budget planning. \u201cSurplus is now the new law.\u201d In practical terms, this means&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[68],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-990913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-jason"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Frishberg and Partners shares a new briefing by Jason Jay Smart, Government Relations Group Leader, on how oil market dynamics are narrowing the Kremlin\u2019s financial and political room. - Frishberg &amp; Partners\u200b<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/frishberg.com\/uk\/frishberg-and-partners-shares-a-new-briefing-by-jason-jay-smart-government-relations-group-leader-on-how-oil-market-dynamics-are-narrowing-the-kremlins-financial-and-political-room\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"uk_UA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Frishberg and Partners shares a new briefing by Jason Jay Smart, Government Relations Group Leader, on how oil market dynamics are narrowing the Kremlin\u2019s financial and political room. - Frishberg &amp; Partners\u200b\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jason argues that the current market is sending an unmistakable signal. \u201cThe global oil market just handed the Kremlin a verdict that it cannot appeal.\u201d He points to a sustained surplus and expectations of lower prices as a direct challenge to Moscow\u2019s budget planning. \u201cSurplus is now the new law.\u201d In practical terms, this means...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/frishberg.com\/uk\/frishberg-and-partners-shares-a-new-briefing-by-jason-jay-smart-government-relations-group-leader-on-how-oil-market-dynamics-are-narrowing-the-kremlins-financial-and-political-room\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Frishberg &amp; 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