Russia isn’t preparing for World War III—it believes we are in World War IV: While the West debates whether a global conflict is looming, the Kremlin sees things differently. To Moscow, the Cold War was World War III—a battle of ideology and influence that ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now, Russia sees itself fighting World War IV, not with tanks and missiles, but through deception, disruption, and destabilization.
Modern warfare is no longer about mass armies clashing on battlefields. Russia knows it cannot compete with the West’s military and technological superiority. Instead, it wages war in the shadows, exploiting the vulnerabilities of open societies. Propaganda confuses, disinformation divides, and social unrest weakens adversaries from within.
At first glance, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might seem to contradict this. But Moscow believed it could seize Ukraine in a week—not just through military force, but by using disinformation, corruption, and social destabilization to make resistance collapse from within. That strategy failed, but Russia has only adapted, expanding its unconventional war on a global scale.
Russia’s alliances extend beyond rogue states like Iran and North Korea. It also works with non-state actors—Hamas, Hezbollah, narco cartels, human traffickers, and cybercriminals. These groups don’t wear uniforms or march in formation, but they are instrumental in spreading chaos, eroding Western stability, and carrying out operations that Russia can deny involvement in. The West, focused on conventional threats, has failed to recognize or counter this new kind of warfare.
The upcoming negotiations are just another weapon in Russia’s arsenal. Moscow understands that the mere act of diplomacy forces the West to make concessions—just as the Soviet Union did before. While Western leaders prepare for outdated forms of warfare, they also cling to outdated diplomatic assumptions, failing to see Russia’s real strategy.
So what does this mean for the future?
- Every statement from Russian leadership is designed to manipulate Western perception.
- Every show of Russian military strength is psychological warfare, meant to intimidate.
- Every rise in internal division within the West plays into Moscow’s hands, as Russia actively fuels unrest and election interference.
Russia sees the world differently—where war is no longer declared, but constantly waged across political, social, and digital fronts.
Do not fear World War III—you already survived it. Fear instead that we are in World War IV, and we do not even realize we are fighting it. And we are losing the war to Russia, because our current strategy against Russian aggression is failing. We stand idly by as Russia wages what it considers World War IV—a war it is winning.
Like a patient ignoring fatal symptoms, our collective denial leaves us exposed. The Kremlin learned well the lesson of Sun Tzu who says in the Art of War that “the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” Russia knows that a direct NATO confrontation is unwinnable. Instead, Moscow fans our internal divisions, knowing as St. Matthew’s warned, that “a house divided cannot stand.”
Russian strategists exploit emotion rather than logic. They do not expect us to rally behind a single leader; instead, they stir indifference on issues like Ukraine by amplifying our domestic resentments—including orchestrated illegal immigration—to pit our communities against one another. Beyond propaganda, Russia employs hacking, sabotage, assassinations, election interference, and incites civil unrest, while the West “responds” only by issuing “strongly worded statements.”
We have granted Russia near impunity. Even if a unified West would prevail in conventional warfare, our inaction ensures its covert victory.
The solution is simple and urgent: Acknowledge that we are at war and reset our rules of engagement. Outdated diplomatic notes will not suffice; we need decisive sanctions, asset seizures, and punitive measures that make interference unbearably costly.
Ukraine is not just another conflict zone; it is the frontline where our moral and strategic imperatives converge. Fully arming and supporting Ukraine is both a duty and a necessity to secure the interests of the United States and Europe as adversaries like China, Iran, and North Korea watch our every move.
Every moment of denial emboldens our foe. We must confront this reality, regain our footing, and defeat Russia. There is no time to lose.
